War in Ukraine: Is Putin backed by the Russian population?

As we all know, war in going on in Ukraine. Major cities are constantly bombed by the Russian army (Kyiv, Kharkiv) which is planning a huge offensive over the Ukrainian capital city. The military superiority of Moscow, 2^nd global army by strength according to Global Firepower, is undeniable on Zelensky’s army, 22^nd on the same ranking. Nevertheless, any leader deciding to make war, as powerful it might be, must rely on a supportive population to achieve its purpose. This raises the following question: do Russians really wanted to enter conflict with Ukraine, does Putin represents their state of mind? These questions are obviously hard to answer but we will try today to give a simple general answer.

In 2021, Putin’s party, United Russia Party, very conservative, has won the legislative elections with 324 out of 450 seats at the Douma (Parliament). Moreover, Putin won the presidential elections of 2018 with 74.2% of the votes. This shows how much the Russian president is appreciated by its people. However, these elections are seen as faked by many democratic countries across the world, and, although the decision to invade Ukraine could be foreseen, it wasn’t a commitment or an electoral promise. So, how Russians feel about it?

Even if during his 22 years in office and his career, Putin’s popularity comes from wars (Chechnya: 1994-1996 and 1999-2000, Georgia in 2008), except the military and geopolitical field, the Russian president assessment on other topics is weak despite the huge potential of Russia (natural resources, industry, and agriculture). In economy, the Western sanctions, the lack of effective management and the isolation of Russia caused a decrease of the people’s quality of life, the rouble’s value, and the increase the inequalities despite the efforts of the government to be self-reliant after the Crimea annexation (1^st international sanctions).

owadays, it is no more a threatening president that talks on the international scene but a bellicose head of State, autocratic which raises lacks of understanding and fear among his closest subordinates. Putin seems lonely and his multiples revisionist speeches where he uses strong words to describe the Ukrainian government such as “denazification” don’t help.

The Russian population in all of this seems scared and passive according to Arthur Larrue (writer about the Russian dissident groups). Russians who could see in the Crimean annexation a form of power and proof of their ability to frighten the world (kind of “Social contract” between Russians leaders and the people: leader assures power and fear of other countries, and the Russian people doesn’t involve in politics), are challenged by the tenacious Ukrainian resistance, considered as a “brother people”.

This can explain the massive demonstrations across Russia against war and the mobilisation of the Russian community worldwide in these events. Thousands of citizens gather against war and Putin: 50 000 in Moscow according to” The March for peace”. Fear slowly evaporates despite the numerous arrests of the authorities (6 400) denounced by the Human Rights Committee. These demonstrations don’t count many people like they do in Western countries, but it is important to remind that the fact that they take place is highly symbolic when repression is common and propaganda too.